A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
